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A Market Outlook to 2022 for Battery Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles

In 2008, the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) published its first report, "Building a Low Carbon economy - the UK's contribution to tackling climate change". It provided advice to the UK Government on the appropriate levels of reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases that need to be achieved by 2050 in order to avoid dangerous climate change. CCC's recommendations were that emissions across the whole UK should be reduced by 80% against 1990 levels by 2050, and that an interim target of a 34% reduction should be set for 2020, increasing to a 42% reduction for the same year in the event that a global deal is agreed upon in December 2009.

In support of CCC's work in 2008, an AEA-led consortium developed a CO2 marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) model for the transport sector, focusing on technology and efficiency options. This model was used to inform CCC's recommendations on potential emissions abatement in the transport sector between 2009 and 2022. The model included a detailed set of technology penetration scenarios that were developed by AEA and our consortium partners to describe different possible ways in which low carbon technologies and fuels could potentially be taken up in the road transport sector in the years to 2022.

In 2009 AEA was asked to investigate, in more detail than was possible in 2008, the potential for future emissions reductions that could be achieved through the application of electric vehicle (EV) and plugin hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) technology in the UK road transport sector and to develop a market outlook for EV and PHEV technologies covering the years 2009 to 2022.

This market outlook examined global developments in EV and PHEV technologies, likely future vehicle manufacturer model programmes, competition from advanced diesel technologies, and the potential need for market and R&D support to facilitate the uptake of electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles. The results of this work have been used to develop four revised technology scenarios that examine theoretical, but realistic scenarios for the potential future uptake of EV and PHEV technology in the UK road transport sector between 2009 and 2022. The findings from this research and the new technology scenarios will be used by CCC to develop further recommendations on the actions that may be needed to stimulate the uptake of EVs and PHEVs in the UK.

Download a copy of the report here